Buying and selling real estate is all about informational leverage. The more information you have, the more likely you are to achieving a positive outcome. Your goal should be to know more than anyone else involved in the transaction.
Reading real estate updates about the Northern Virginia real market or even the Loudoun County market is almost useless. What matters is what is happening in YOUR neighborhood, or even your street!! There is no such thing as “The Northern Virginia real estate expert!”
With that in mind, I’ve chosen to provide relevant, accurate real estate data for neighborhoods in Leesburg, VA.
In this update I’m looking at the metric called “contract ratio” to help determine if the strong seller’s market we have been experiencing the past eight months is now over. The Contract Ratio is simply the number of homes that are currently under contract divided by the number of homes currently listed. It is a measure that looks at the level of purchase activity compared to active inventory available for purchase.
A higher Contract Ratio signifies a relative increase in contracts compared to supply, and indicates the market is moving in the seller’s favor. A lower Contract Ratio signifies a relative decrease in contracts compared to supply, and indicates the market is moving in the buyer’s favor.
With very few exceptions, the contract ratio for the Leesburg neighborhoods in most of 2017 was a very high number. In some cases as high as 10. Clearly the market was favoring sellers.
As you can see in the data below, the Contract Ratio is now in the low single digits in most neighborhoods. In fact, there are 2 neighborhoods at .12 and .06! Clearly the market is moving towards favoring buyers in these neighborhoods.
Courtland Village: Contract Ratio = 1
Edwards Landing: Contract Ratio =1.3
Evergreen Meadows: Contract Ratio = 2
Exeter: Contract Ratio = .57
Foxridge: Contract Ratio = 2
Lansdowne: Contract Ratio = .81
Kincaid Forest: Contract Ratio = 0
Potomac Crossing: Contract Ratio 1.1
Potomac Station: Contract Ratio = .9
Northlake: Contract Ratio = 1
Red Cedar: Contract Ratio = .33
River Creek: Contract Ratio = .12
Shenstone: Contract Ratio = .05
Tavistock Farm: Contract Ratio = .75
Woodlea Manor: Contract Ratio = .5
If you don’t see your neighborhood listed, please don’t hesitate to give me a call. I’d be glad to take a closer look for you and discuss the dynamics of your market area.